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Prediction for CME (2025-09-11T08:53:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-09-11T08:53Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/41157/-1
CME Note: Narrow CME seen to the SE in STEREO A COR2 closely following the fainter CME: 2025-09-11T07:53Z. It is seen as a faint, asymmetrical and complex-shaped partial halo to the SSE in SOHO LASCO C2. Its source is likely the complex gradual eruption of a southern filament mostly seen in SDO AIA 193 as a faint dimming and ejecta and lasting/developing for hours. The filament seems to be centered very approximately around S40E05 but the filament stretches (mostly along latitude) at least from S40E45 to S30W05. There is also a more western, fainter, feature of this CME seen to the west in SOHO LASCO C2 but it is hard to fit into an analysis. There are also potential additional one or two follow-up fronts in coronagraphs following this CME.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-09-14T11:00Z
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (KSWC)
Prediction Method Note:

KSWC ENLIL settings:
ENLIL version: 2.7e
Resolution: low (256x30x90)
Ambient settings: a5b1
WSA version: 2.2


CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary:
Radial velocity (km/s):
Longitude (deg):
Latitude (deg):
Half-angular width (deg):

Notes:

Lead Time: 32.77 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by RWC KSWC (KASA) on 2025-09-13T02:14Z

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